CD 8 congressional primary is a toss-up

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Anything could happen in the DFL primary in the 8th Congressional District.

Three challengers — Jeff Anderson, Tarryl Clark and Rick Nolan — are running credible campaigns, and turnout is expected to be extremely low for the mid-August primary. Two years ago, when then-incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar faced token DFL opposition, just over 70,000 individuals voted, but there was also a high-profile three-way gubernatorial primary to draw interest.
“There’s just a bunch of big question marks,” said Ben Goldfarb, executive director of Wellstone Action, who served as campaign manager for U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s 2006 campaign. “We’ve had exactly one August primary … It’s just such a different dynamic.”

That means any number of seemingly negligible factors could alter the outcome. For instance, in several parts of the district — Pine, Crow Wing and St. Louis counties — there are also DFL primary contests for state legislative contests. That could magnify efforts to raise awareness about the summer primary and increase voter participation in certain pockets of the district.
Goldfarb also points out that low-turnout primaries generally attract “high information” voters. “While everyone else is at the lake, they’re turning out to vote,” he said. “Politics actually is important to people who vote in an August primary.”

Former Congressman Nolan, who is looking to return to Washington after a three-decade absence, is widely perceived as the front-runner. He’s the DFL-endorsed candidate and can count on the campaign infrastructure that comes with party backing. That means access to more detailed data about potential voters, a 23-line phone bank, and teams of volunteer doorknockers. That grass-roots get-out-the-vote infrastructure will likely be more important in a low-turnout election. In addition, the state party announced last week that it plans to spend $100,000 on television advertising to support Nolan in the run-up to the election.

“For anyone to ever underestimate the power of the DFL endorsement would be foolish,” said Mike Misterek, Nolan’s campaign manager. “People rely heavily on the DFL endorsement in looking at who they’re going to vote for. … We’re very happy that the DFL has come to play in this election and they’re serious.”

Clark leads in fundraising

Former state Sen. Tarryl Clark has a vast financial advantage over her DFL rivals. She’s been able to tap into a national database of DFL donors amassed during her 2010 campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in the 6th Congressional District. As of the end of June, she’d taken in just over $1 million during this election cycle and had more than $250,000 in the bank. That’s more than double the fundraising and cash on hand totals for her two rivals combined.

Clark’s campaign manager, Joe Fox, points out that independent expenditure groups like the American Action Network, headed by former Minnesota U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are primed to pour money into the race on behalf of Republican incumbent Chip Cravaack and that the DFL nominee needs to be financially prepared to withstand that onslaught. “They’ve reserved time to have a voice in this race, and I can tell you it’s not going to be against Chip. It’s going to be against whoever the [DFL] nominee is,” Fox said. “You can never stop raising money because there is always money being raised and spent against you.”

Clark’s campaign has released four different television ads. Fox declined to provide financial details about the ad buys, but stressed that they will be airing in the Duluth television market straight through the election.

Money could prove less important in a low-turnout primary, however. Goldfarb points out that even a modestly financed campaign will have the opportunity to speak with likely voters multiple times before August 14 if they are doing an effective job of targeting the right individuals. “You can kind of assume that all those campaigns are going to communicate pretty heavily with all of the people who are likely to vote,” Goldfarb said. “In a primary, if the campaigns are reasonably well-funded and reasonably well-resourced, and they’re really competing for it, advantages in resources are not as profound.”

Clark certainly isn’t relying entirely on television to reach voters. Like her rivals, she’s criss-crossing the district to attend parades, retiree gatherings and local DFL meetings. “A lot of them are really small. A lot of them are to groups of 10, 12 people,” Fox said. “The problem with a district that’s as rural and geographically large as this one is, it would be great if you could get in front of 2,000 people at a time, but that doesn’t happen.”

Anderson unequivocally pro-mining

Anderson is by most measures the long shot in the race. He’s raised the least money and doesn’t have access to the organizing muscle of the DFL Party. But the former Duluth City Council president has attracted a strong list of endorsement from elected officials, including state Reps. Tom Rukavina and Carly Melin, state Sen. Roger Reinert, and Duluth Mayor Don Ness. Anderson has also sought to position himself as the most unequivocally pro-mining candidate in the contest.
“I am the great-grandson, grandson and son of miners on the Iron Range,” Anderson said. “This is something that is very personal to me and to so many folks who live in northern Minnesota. The fastest way to create jobs and the best way to keep young people here is to invest in mining. I differ from the other candidates because my answer on mining is always consistent: I support it. Rick and Tarryl have said different things to different audiences, and that bothers me, because we need to have a strong and supportive message when it comes to mining.”

But Misterek points out that there are legitimate worker safety and environmental concerns that need to be part of the conversation as copper, nickel and taconite mining projects move forward in the coming years. “We all support mining,” Misterek said. “We’ve seen Jeff Anderson has tried to draw the line in the sand: You’re either with us or against us. Well, that’s not the case.”

While the DFL primary has largely been civil, Anderson has been aggressive in raising the perceived shortcomings of Clark and Nolan. His sole television spot is unsubtly titled “Living Here Matters.” It criticizes Clark for moving into the district solely to run for Congress and takes a shot at Nolan for wanting to return to Congress “over 30 years after retiring to represent the opposite end of the state.” He mocks Clark’s 2010 campaign to oust Bachmann: “Tarryl Clark two years ago spent $4.5 million just to get her butt kicked by a crazy person,” Anderson said.
Harlan Tardy, executive director of the Arrowhead Economic Opportunity Agency (AEOA), is backing Clark. He doesn’t think her recent arrival in the district should be relevant to voters. “People have to look well beyond that,” Tardy said. “She knows our rural concerns as well or better than any of them.”

If Anderson or Nolan prevails on election day, they will likely head to the general election with little money in the bank and just three months to build a credible challenge to Cravaack. But most political observers believe the financial resources will materialize. Cravaack’s 2010 victory over 18-term incumbent Jim Oberstar was among the biggest upsets of the year, and Democrats are anxious to win back the seat.

“It’s not where you’d want to be if you come through, obviously,” Goldfarb said. “But I wouldn’t be that worried about it. This is going to be an absolute top-tier, highly competitive race nationally. … Any political donor in Minnesota who wants to give a dollar and make a difference this fall, this is where they’re going to put their money.”