Capitol Retort: Balance of power; suckers and losers; judicial poll

Listen to this article

Question 1: Labor Day is behind us, so election season is in full throttle. Given where things stand right now, what does the handicapper in you have to say about where the balance of power is going to end up in the Minnesota Legislature after the general election votes are counted?

Warren Limmer, GOP Senate Judiciary chair:  If Donald Trump does well, Republicans will gain in the House. And I predict they will gain in the Senate, making an even stronger majority. I think it’s a very real possibility that Donald Trump will do better than what he did before [in 2016]. Personally, I think it’s a little too early to break out and uncork the champagne bottles. But if you drive in outstate Minnesota, all you see is a sea of Trump signs and flags, everywhere—more so than ever before.

Mike Freiberg, DFL House Government Operations chair: I’m pretty optimistic for the Democrats. It seems like the national polling is looking pretty good for [Joe] Biden. And the state Senate has quite a few seats [in districts] that were won by Governor [Tim] Walz that are currently held by Republicans. So I think we have a good chance to flipping there. And we have really strong candidates in the House.

Jennifer DeJournett, GOP party operative: I’m going to go for honesty: I believe that there’s a high probability for a trifecta. I believe the Democrats will have a majority in the Senate and that they’ll retain the House, which in a redistricting year is a major, major thing. It sets the table for a decade of control. It couldn’t be any more high-stakes. So my recommendation is for center and center-right candidates to start campaigning harder.

John Kaul, photographer, retired progressive lobbyist: I think the House Democrats will stay in control. I think that whoever is in charge of the Senate will have a very narrow margin. It just seems like Trump says something every day that should have him at 4% support, but nothing that is revealed about him seems to do anything but strengthen his base. Everything looks like it’s getting tight, including the U.S. Senate race. And who knows from one day to the next whether Trump will be competitive in Minnesota?

Question 2: We’ve heard so many stunning stories about the president that it’s hard to believe any break through anymore. Do you detect any special public resonance in Jeffrey Goldberg’s Atlantic article, which says that Donald Trump declined to visit an American WWI cemetery, in part, because the soldiers were “suckers” and “losers” for putting themselves in a position to die on a battlefield?

Limmer: It may. The president has denied making those comments as of just this morning, and that’s all I know about it. So it may have resonance, but I don’t think it’s enough to turn people against him. Everyone came to know his style versus his substance and those who have been attracted to him I don’t think are going to walk away from him, in light of who he’s running against.

Freiberg: It’s hard to know. I mean, his fan base seems so immune to whatever the latest outrage is. I think it might make a difference with some swing voters, potentially. I think there are still some of those left. The story seems entirely believable to me—these are basically things he has already said in public. I mean, he said about Senator [John] McCain that he likes people “who weren’t captured.” So this seems certainly on the same gutter level as a comment like that. We already know he’s incompetent and corrupt and racist. I think we also know that he’s a jerk and this is consistent with that.

DeJournett: First of all, I don’t believe that story happened. I don’t believe that. But I think in a normal election year, even a fake news story like that would hold resonance. But I think that this year with the speed of news happening, I think half of America has already forgotten that was a story already. There’s too much to keep track of.

Kaul: First of all, I believe the story because it is quite in keeping with other statements he has made about John McCain and about his courageous war record. But whether it will have an effect? It just seems like he’s cast a spell on these people out there. I mean, his base, I have never seen it before in the country; there are people who are just hell-bent for leather to believe what they want to believe and nothing is going to interfere with that process. They must need the message that he is transmitting for some reason.

Question 3: A Sept. 4 Minnesota State Bar Association poll of 6,848 members, numerous appellate court practitioners among them, showed incumbent Supreme Court Justice Paul Thissen leading perennial challenger Michelle MacDonald among lawyers by a whopping 91%-9%. What do you make of that?

Limmer: Outside of those who think that lawyers are the final arbiter of all wisdom, there are a few other people who are going to be having a say in November’s election.

Freiberg: One approach I could take to answer this would be to talk about the weaknesses of Michelle MacDonald. But instead, I’m going to focus on what an amazing legal mind Justice Thissen has. I served with him in the Legislature; he was the speaker during my first term. I think people recognize that he’s a brilliant jurist. And I think that’s reflected in these poll results.

DeJournett: I don’t understand who those 9% are who would vote for the crazy cat lady of Minnesota politics.

Kaul: I think we need to take a deep look at the 9%. [Laughs.] We need to peer into their minds and their souls and find out what it is that is attractive about this candidate.