Capitol Retort: Semi-Collin, Omar’s present, swamis’ predictions

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Editor’s note: Welcome to Capitol Retort, our weekly review of issues in state and national news, with a rotating cast of legal and political people in the know. Answers are edited for length and clarity. Any instances of agreement are accidental.

Question 1: U.S. Rep. Collin Peterson, DFL-Minn., has drawn criticism and praise for being one of only two Democrats to vote no on an impeachment procedural vote Thursday. No less a figure than Vice President Mike Pence said impeachment-obsessed Dems should listen to the Minnesotan. What was your reaction to the Congressman’s vote?

Warren Limmer, GOP chair, Senate Judiciary and Public Safety committee: No surprise—survivability is a strong motivator.

Dave Ornstein, former Bloomington city attorney: I wasn’t surprised at all, given that he is in a district that voted for Trump last time. I understand that he needs to kind of walk the tightrope. It might be political suicide for him to support the impeachment, so it was a political decision on his part. I’d like to see him get re-elected and I am not going to hold him accountable for being one of the two to dissents. I think people like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi understand that, as well.

Peter Bell, conservative writer: Frankly, the merits of the impeachment debate notwithstanding, I thought it was a courageous stand. I tend to like it when the Democrats and Republicans go against their party elites. That kind of independence is heartening to me. It’s what I think we need from both parties.

Nick Zerwas, GOP House member:  His vote didn’t surprise me at all. He’s representing I think a plus-30% Trump district. And for his first time in Congress, he has a real challenger in [former GOP state Senate President] Michelle Fischbach. So I think he voted with his district. The real question, since he voted to seat Speaker Pelosi—who has been obsessed with trying to impeach Donald Trump—is will voters give him a pass for that, just because he voted against impeachment? My guess is no.

Floyd B. Olson, former senior assistant Hennepin County attorney: It was entirely expected. Collin Peterson is living in the most rural, conservative area in the state of Minnesota, so it would be natural for him to vote on the Republican side.

Question 2: U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar, DFL-Minn., drew sharp rebukes—some from her own political team—for voting “present” during a congressional vote condemning the WWI-era Armenian genocide at the hands of the Turks. Did you buy her explanation that she didn’t want to condemn one genocide without condemning them all?

Limmer: [Laughs.] I didn’t buy her reasoning, but I wasn’t surprised due to her selectivity in judging in historical events in the past.

Zerwas: No. I find it odd that she has no problem participating in the BDS movement and condemning Israel without that bar. So she can condemn Israel, no problem, and we don’t have to talk about America’s misdeeds with Native Americans. But when it comes to going on record to condemn the Armenian massacre, she just can’t go there. Clearly, she is trying to have her cake and eat it, too. It’s becoming more and more apparent to, I think, everyone that she might be Minnesota’s favorite supporter of [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan. [Editor’s note: BDS (“Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions”) is a movement that seeks to economically punish Israel until it grants full equality to Arab-Palestinians, withdraws from the occupied territories and meets other demands. Some critics consider BDS anti-Semitic. “The BDS movement is not a mere protest movement against certain policies of the Israeli government,” state Sen. Ron Latz, DFL-St. Louis Park said in 2017. “The BDS movement’s goal is to eliminate the state of Israel.”]

Olson: I think that she had to come up with some kind of rationalization. I think her biases are so transparent that she is going to do herself in when she comes up for re-election. People know by now that she isn’t voting for her total constituency. She is voting for people who she relates to.

Bell: I think the genocide against the Armenians was real and tragic and worthy of condemnation. And I really didn’t buy that we had to condemn all genocides at the same time with equal levels of intensity.

Ornstein: No. I think that was absolutely outrageous and it shows a gross ignorance of history. It was an easy vote. I am a strong opponent of Omar for a variety of reasons. It wouldn’t surprise me if someday she denies that the Holocaust happened. Who knows? I don’t know what goes through her mind. But I think she is an embarrassment to the district.

Question 3: We’re officially one year out from Election Night 2020. Put on your swami hat for a moment and tell us your prediction of what will be the big headline on the day after?

Limmer: “Trump wins Minnesota, but national election in dispute.”

Zerwas: “Media elites, deep state stunned as Trump cruises to victory.”

Olson: The big headline is, “Democrats take the House, Senate and presidency.” My prediction is that the Democrats are going to take control of all branches of government except for the judiciary. And there is going to be a lot of maneuvering about the number of judges that we ought to have.

Bell: Right now, my prediction would be, “Elizabeth Warren, first female president, elected.” Now, that’s not necessarily something that I think is going to be a good thing. But I think she has the momentum in the Democratic Party and I think our current president is going to have a steep uphill battle—even with the backdrop of what I consider an excellent economy and the unemployment rate at a 50-year low. If you asked me if I’d take the field or Elizabeth Warren, I’d take the field. But if you ask me for one name, right now I’d say Elizabeth Warren is the odds-on favorite.

Ornstein: Boy, it’s impossible to predict right now. Because it really depends on who the Democrats nominate and what is going to happen to Donald Trump between now and then. I think there is a little better than 50-50 chance that the Democratic nominee will win. But it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump got re-elected.