There's one stark difference in recent polls that will likely be the key to Tuesday's vote: the makeup of the electorate in each. The disparate top line results can almost solely be laid at the feet of this key difference.

The latest poll in the Minnesota governor's race shows DFL gubernatorial nominee Mark Dayton with a five point lead over GOP candidate Tom Emmer.

When the results of the latest Minnesota Public Radio and Humphrey Institute poll were released Wednesday, things didn't look good for GOP nominee Tom Emmer. In a response to the numbers, Emmer campaign manager Cullen Sheehan sent a detailed memo to supporters dissecting the poll.

Nate Silver, the baseball/sabermetrics guru who brought a new level of sophistication to the analysis of political numbers when he launched fivethirtyeight.com in March 2008, posted a revised set of numbers on the most accurate political pollsters in the land last month -- and there are a few points of local interest.