A Quinnipiac poll that is getting some attention recently finds that “Obama is first as worst president since World War II.”

The poll released by the Bush Foundation on Thursday finds that more than two-thirds of Minnesotans don’t like the budget deal agreed to by Gov. Mark Dayton and the GOP majorities in the Legislature, which included cuts to spending, a large K-12 school payment delay and borrowing against future tobacco settlement payments.

Most Minnesotans blame the Republican-controlled Legislature for the historic 20-day government shutdown that ended with a budget deal last week, according to a new MinnPost poll.

Guests at Tuesday's Leaders in Public Policy event were invited to participate in informal text polling to gauge where they stand 10 days out from a potential state government shutdown.

Last January, 13 percent said Pawlenty would be the strongest candidate for their party in 2012 in the poll. This year, that's slipped to 9 percent.

There's one stark difference in recent polls that will likely be the key to Tuesday's vote: the makeup of the electorate in each. The disparate top line results can almost solely be laid at the feet of this key difference.

The last KSTP poll showed DFLer Mark Dayton at 42 percent, Republican Tom Emmer at 37 percent support. Tom Horner had 14 percent. In the last MPR/Humphrey poll, Dayton had 38 percent, Emmer had 27 percent and Horner had 16.

Dayton garnered the support of 40 percent of likely voters in the poll, while Emmer reached 30 percent. Horner saw 19 percent among likely voters.

Emmer now has the support of 86 percent of Republicans, and Dayton has the backing of 86 percent of Democrats. Among nonpartisans, Emmer gets 31 percent support, Dayton 28 percent and Horner 27 percent.

Democrat Mark Dayton leading Republican Tom Emmer by a 38 to 36 margin. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner posted his strongest showing yet, pulling in 18 percent support.