In 2010, Chip Cravaack pulled off one of the most stunning political upsets in the country by defeating U.S. Rep. Jim Oberstar. The 18-term DFL incumbent chaired the powerful Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure and had never won re-election by less than 29 percentage points.

More than three decades have passed since Rick Nolan last ran for Congress. But on Wednesday afternoon, standing before the statue of former populist Farmer-Labor Gov. Floyd B. Olson on the Capitol lawn, Nolan made his candidacy in the 8th Congressional District official.

There's something distinctly familiar about Carly Melin's quest to become a legislator. After she won a five-way DFL primary Tuesday in the special election for Tony Sertich's House District 5B seat, Republicans went after the Hibbing native the very next morning, questioning whether she had really lived back in the district for at least six months as required by state law.

Dayton set Feb. 15 for the special election to replace him, but the Feb. 1 primary is likely to be the decisive battle in the heavily DFL district that covers Chisholm, Hibbing, Floodwood and Meadowlands.

DFL Rep. Tony Sertich's departure from the Legislature to take over the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation Board in Gov. Mark Dayton's administration leaves an open seat in House District 5B, where he has sat for the last six terms.

In many cases, DFLers simply got caught in an undertow in districts that are fundamentally split in their political allegiances; in some, like rural Senate District 16, they handed back control of districts no one had expected them to win in the first place; in others, it appears, they failed to take steps to protect incumbents who faced discernible pockets of Republican opposition.

There is erosion on the horizon for the region's standing in the legislative balance of power; population declines have many predicting a loss of seats in the 2012 round of redistricting. Which makes it all the more ironic that the stars could be aligning for a 2011 Iron Range leadership sweep in the legislative and executive branches that some lawmakers find unpalatable.

Minnesota’s population changes over the last decade will give rise to a complex set of moving pieces when lawmakers redraw legislative districts after the 2010 U.S. Census is completed.