Business PACs spend to defend GOP frosh

Liberal, labor PACs target many of the same races

The campaign finance reports released last week show that political action committees large and small have been funneling lots of money into legislative races. Business PACs seem to be concentrating their firepower on the defense of freshman GOP legislators in competitive races, with a secondary emphasis on some promising first-time Republican candidates.

Liberal groups, most notably the Alliance for a Better Minnesota, have focused almost all of their efforts on attacking many of those same Republicans.

Only political committees were required to file last week. So numbers from big-spending entities like political party units and legislative caucuses aren’t publicly known yet. What follows is a report on 10 of the most noteworthy Republican freshmen and challengers who have found themselves at the heart of this cycle’s legislative money race.

SENATE RACES

District 51: Sen. Ted Daley, R-Eagan

Independent expenditures: Freedom Club ($13,782) (for), Pro Jobs Majority ($28,900) (for).
Direct contributions: Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe ($250); Prairie Island Indian Community ($250); Faegre Baker Daniels ($200); Leonard, Street ($250); Dorsey & Whitney ($250); MN Dental Association PAC ($300); Minn Bank State PAC ($250); Committee of Automotive Retailers PAC ($250); North Star SFAA-PAC ($500); North Central States Carpenters PAC ($500); Multi-Housing PAC ($300); Goff Public ($500).

Notes: This race is notable for who isn’t spending so far: One of the most pivotal contests in the 2012 legislative election cycle had seen no independent expenditures through September 18 from the Alliance for a Better Minnesota. To date, ABM has made independent expenditures in the House race in Eagan where lightning-rod GOP Rep. Doug Wardlow (one of the House’s more strident voices in favor of a right-to-work constitutional amendment last session) is seeking re-election.

Daley, a markedly less polarizing figure, will soon enough see a flood of money directed at him as he defends his seat against former DFL Sen. Jim Carlson, whom Daley defeated in 2010. And GOP-aligned business groups are already bracing for the onslaught by doing a huge amount of independent spending on Daley’s behalf. In a break with their typical patterns of giving, both hard-right and mainstream business groups have gone all-in for Daley.

That’s not always the case: The ultra-conservative Freedom Club typically looks away from moderate Republican legislators who are embraced by more mainstream players like the Chamber of Commerce. (Those two groups were totally at odds earlier this year in the primary race between Rep. Connie Doepke, R-Orono, and Mound City Council Dave Osmek.) Daley’s receipts also show support from traditional DFL bastions among labor groups and Minnesota Indian tribes. In addition to its being a key swing district, the race is a magnet for business interests because of Carlson’s high-profile role in trying to apply environmental strictures to emerging nonferrous mining initiatives in northeastern Minnesota when he last served in the Senate.

District 53: Sen. Ted Lillie, R-Woodbury

Independent expenditures: Alliance for a Better Minnesota ($12,897) (against); Freedom Club ($13,270) (for); Pro Jobs Majority ($28,900) (for).

Direct contributions: Freedom Club State PAC ($500); Faegre Baker Daniels ($200); Dorsey & Whitney ($250); Best & Flanagan ($200); Dentists Association ($300); Minn Bank State PAC ($500); Committee of Automotive Retailers ($250); North Star SFAA-PAC ($500); Prairie Island Indian Community ($500); Multi-Housing PAC ($300); Goff Public ($500).

Notes: Lillie won election in 2010 over moderate DFLer Kathy Saltzman and was a prominent figure as the large freshman class asserted itself at the Capitol. The head of a family newspaper company in the northern suburbs, Lillie has a resume as an executive and business leader that gives him a spot on the GOP’s bench of aspirants for higher office.

When the Senate Republican leadership was overthrown in the wake of the Amy Koch/Michael Brodkorb scandal, Lillie became the caucus’s majority whip. That means that knocking off Lillie would be a major coup for DFLers, a fact reflected in ABM’s decision to spend five figures against Lillie by early summer.

Lillie is running in the open Senate District 53 against DFLer Susan Kent in what will likely be, along with the Daley/Carlson race, one of the most expensive legislative races in the 2012 cycle.

District 20: Michael Dudley (GOP challenger)

Independent expenditures: Freedom Club ($13,046) (for); Pro Jobs Majority ($28,900) (for).
Direct contributions: Freedom Club ($500); MN Business Partnership PAC ($500); Minnesota TruckPAC ($500); Insurance Federation ($200).

Notes: Michael who? The strategists among the state’s elite GOP-aligned business groups definitely know who this challenger running in the open Senate District 20 seat is. Dudley was once a district attorney in Wisconsin. In the 1980s he became an FBI special agent and worked in several states in the Midwest during a 26-year career with the Bureau. He’s lived in New Prague since 1997 and is an investigative consultant.

Like the Carlson-Daley contest in Eagan, the race features a DFLer, Kevin Dahle, who is trying to win back the seat he lost in the 2010 GOP wave. Dahle is a teacher and was regarded as a staunch ally of the Education Minnesota teachers union when he served in the Senate. That makes him a target for business groups who have gone to the mat with the teachers union in recent sessions to advance a slate of education reforms. The District 20 Senate seat is a gamble for either party to invest in heavily, because its House districts are split down the middle politically.

DFLers have good reason to think former Rep. David Bly, DFL-Northfield, will return to the Legislature next year to represent the deep blue B side of the district. And Republicans expect Rep. Kelby Woodard, R-Belle Plaine, will be back to represent the deep red A side. Dudley is a former FBI agent and county attorney who lives on the “bad” side of the district for Republicans. Beyond the candidates, the strategic position of the district is important for Republicans, as the early spending shows.

“If Republicans want to wake up on November 7 and still have the majority, they absolutely have to have Senate District 20. That’s a huge piece of all the focus and attention there,” said one GOP operative.

District 36: Sen. Benjamin Kruse, R-Brooklyn Park

Independent expenditures: Freedom Club ($10,663) (for).

Direct contributions: Freedom Club ($500); MN Bus Partnership PAC ($500); Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe ($250); Prairie Island Indian Community ($250); Lockridge Grindal Nauen ($300); Realtors Association PAC ($500); Best & Flannagan ($200); Minnesota Truck PAC ($500); Twin West Chamber ($500); Committee of Automotive Retailers PAC ($250); National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) Minnesota ($200); Goff Public ($500).

Notes: Kruse’s district has been one of the first mentioned by handicappers this summer in making predictions about the battle for control of the Senate. This seat is on the periphery of the races that Republicans will invest heavily in, and it’s just about a certainty that the DFL will be back in the minority in 2013 if its nominee John Hoffman can’t beat Kruse. (Observers on both sides of the aisle apply the same analysis to Sen. Pam Wolf, R-Spring Lake Park, which is near Kruse’s district.)

The most widely used partisan voter indices that were calculated after redistricting show the district has a slight Republican tinge. Common Cause Minnesota has the district at GOP + 2. Both House districts in District 36 are held by DFLers, although Republicans like their chances in 36A, where DFL Rep. Denise Dittrich is retiring. Kruse’s support from the Freedom Club and NFIB indicates he’s got strong support from the right wing of the party.

That’s in part because Kruse supported a constitutional amendment that would allow workers to opt out of paying union dues, known as right-to-work. Kruse’s social conservative profile led him to oppose expanded gambling to pay for construction of a Minnesota Vikings NFL football stadium, a stance that garnered the support of Minnesota Indian tribes.

District 28: Sen. Jeremy Miller, R-Winona

Independent expenditures: Pro Jobs Majority ($28,900) (for).

Direct contributions: MN Business Partnership ($500); Faegre Baker Daniels ($200); Leonard, Street ($250); Minnesota Truck PAC ($500); Minnesota Hospital Association ($200); Minnesota Dental Association PAC ($300); North Central States Carpenters ($500); Rural Electric PAC ($130); Multi-Housing PAC ($300); Minnesota Telecom Alliance PAC ($500).

Notes: No Freedom Club spending here, probably because Miller opposed right-to-work. But the first-term Republican is a darling of the moderate business set, especially the Chamber’s Pro Jobs Majority. Pro Jobs has dropped nearly $30,000 so far on Miller’s bid for a second term. And he’s received direct contributions from a constellation of specific business interests ranging from landlords to dentists. Miller — who, at 28, is one of the youngest members of the Legislature — bucked his caucus on right-to-work and other issues in a play to lay the groundwork to win re-election in a district where DFL statistician Tony Petrangelo calculates a partisan index of DFL + 1.

One challenge for Miller in this election is that Democrats at the top of the ticket in national races tend to do well in southeastern Minnesota. Groups opposing the constitutional amendments related to banning gay marriage and requiring photo ID will work to organize the college campuses in Winona. Miller tried to inoculate himself by being the only Senate Republican to vote against putting the photo ID requirement on the ballot. Jack Krage is Miller’s DFL challenger.

HOUSE RACES

District 51A: Rep. Diane Anderson, R-Eagan

Independent expenditures: Pro Jobs Majority ($3,720) (for).

Direct contributions: Freedom Club State PAC ($500); Leonard, Street ($400); Dorsey & Whitney ($200); Minnesota Hospital Association ($250); Minnesota Dental Association PAC ($300); Minn Bank State PAC ($300); Committee of Automotive Retailers PAC ($250); North Star SFAA-PAC ($500); Rural Electric PAC ($120).

Notes: A broad coalition of business interests has poured money into Anderson’s re-election bid that features a rematch with former Rep. Sandy Masin, DFL-Eagan. This is the third time they’ve run against each other; Masin won their first race, in 2008, before Anderson was elected in the 2010 GOP wave. As is the case with the Eagan race in the Senate, Anderson and her GOP district mate, Rep. Doug Wardlow, are running in a bellwether swing district.

Democratic presidential candidates won in the old District 38A in both 2004 and 2008, which could be a harbinger for Democratic success this year. But GOP U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman beat his Democratic challenger Al Franken in the district in 2008.

District 26B: Rep. Michael Benson, R-Rochester

Independent expenditures: Pro Jobs Majority PAC ($14,450) (for).

Direct contributions: Minnesota Business Partnership ($250); Freedom Club ($500); MEDPAC ($250); Dentists Association ($300); Committee of Automotive Retailers ($200); NFIB ($200); Rural Electric PAC ($130); Minn Telecom Alliance PAC ($500).

Notes: Benson is not the likeliest candidate to see a five figure independent expenditure from Pro Jobs Majority. House District 26B is not commonly recognized a key battleground district. While the district was held by DFLer Andy Welti of Plainview for three terms before Benson won in 2010, Welti used a remarkable work ethic to win in the Republican-leaning district. The district got a little less friendly for Republicans in redistricting. Benson is well-liked by businesses, who are sending money his way in a bid ensure he returns to St. Paul. He faces DFLer Pat Stallman in the November general election.

District 26A: Breanna Bly (GOP challenger)

Independent expenditures: Pro Jobs Majority ($14,175) (for).

Direct contributions: MN Business Partnership ($500), Minnesota Farmers Union ($300).

Notes: Bly’s profile as a moderate is reflected in the sizeable amount spent by Pro Jobs Majority and the contribution she received from the Minnesota Farmers Union, which traditionally supports DFLers. Bly, who’s spent 12 years on the Rochester School Board, is running against Rep. Tina Liebling, DFL-Rochester, who has irked conservatives and pro-business groups. A Republican operative said Bly would fit the moderate mold of former GOP Rochester Rep. Dave Bishop.

District 2A: Rep. Dave Hancock, R-Bemidji

Independent expenditures: Alliance for a Better Minnesota ($12,897) (against); Coalition of Minnesota Businesses ($3,720) (for).

Direct contributions: MN Business Partnership PAC ($500); Freedom Club ($500); Mille Lacs Band ($250); Dorsey & Whitney ($200); MN Dental PAC ($300); Rural Electric PAC ($305); Minn Telecom Alliance PAC ($500).

Notes: The liberal Alliance for a Better Minnesota caused a disturbance in the north woods when it spent nearly $13,000 against Hancock before the year was even half over. Hancock beat DFL incumbent Rep. Brita Sailer by nearly 5 percentage points in 2010. DFLer Roger Erickson of Baudette won the DFL endorsement to challenge Hancock in this sprawling district, which extends all the way to the Canadian border.

District 48A: Rep. Kirk Stensrud, R-Eden Prairie

Independent expenditures: Coalition of Minnesota Businesses ($3,720) (for).

Direct contributions: Mille Lacs Band ($250); Leonard, Street ($300); Minnesota Manufactured Homes ($150); TwinWest Chamber ($500); Insurance Federation ($300); Committee of Automotive Retailers ($250); North Star SFAA-PAC ($500); Prairie Island Indian Community ($250); Multi-Housing PAC ($300); Goff Public ($500)

Notes: Stensrud defeated three-term DFL incumbent Maria Ruud by just 107 votes in the old House District 42A. Republicans have known for the last two years that they will have to battle to keep the seat. That became all the more apparent when the House DFL found one of its top recruits to run against Stensrud in former Hopkins School Board Chair Yvonne Selcer. The race has already been contentious, with Republicans going on the offensive by charging that the school district’s debt increased under Selcer’s watch.