Minnesota Lawyer
A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showed Gov. Mark Dayton’s support slipping significantly. “Whatever gains he’s made in the last few months have eroded,” a Hamline University political science professor says. (Staff photo: Peter Bartz-Gallagher)
Everybody loses in public standing if budget solution is not reached by June 30
Gov. Mark Dayton has held the political upper hand throughout the first six months of his tenure. Polling has consistently shown him with approval ratings above 50 percent and widespread public support for his plan to eliminate the state’s $5 billion budget deficit through a mix of spending cuts and tax increases on the state’s wealthiest residents.
But as the state lurches closer to a July 1 government shutdown, and public sentiment steadily sours toward the antagonists at the Capitol, the political risks for both Dayton and the Republican-led Legislature will undoubtedly increase. Fresh evidence of the perils of a shutdown arrived on Monday with the release of a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showing Dayton’s support slipping significantly. The survey found that 42 percent of Minnesota residents surveyed approve of his job performance — nine points lower than any previous poll — while 43 percent disapprove.
David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University, points out that Dayton’s level of support in the poll is nearly identical to the percentage of votes he won on Election Day. “Everybody who voted for him approves of what he’s doing,” Schultz said. “Whatever gains he’s made in the last few months have eroded.”
In addition, the poll yielded potentially troubling results for Dayton’s budget plan. It found that 60 percent of individuals surveyed believe that the state government should spend less money in the future, compared with just 8 percent who believe it should spend more. The results appear to conflict with a Star Tribune survey conducted last month that found overwhelming support — 63 percent — for a mix of tax hikes and spending cuts to solve the state’s $5 billion budget deficit, as Dayton has proposed.
Stephen Frank, a political science professor at St. Cloud State University, says this seeming contradiction in polling results reflects a disconnect in public attitudes toward government and spending. “Most Americans and most Minnesotans are philosophically conservative but operationally liberal,” Frank said. “They don’t like government and they don’t like spending, but god help you if you cut their program.”
In addition, Dayton’s handling of logistics for a government shutdown could prove politically difficult. So far, Republicans have largely been saddled with public angst over proposed cuts to programs and services. But with Dayton pushing for a broad-ranging shutdown that would likely result in significant public unrest, he risks turning that ire on himself. Case in point: his initial plan to cut off payments to health care providers for programs such as Medical Assistance and MinnesotaCare. After a hue and cry from providers, Dayton amended his shutdown petition to the court this week to recommend the restoration of those payments.
“Politically, he would like the hard shutdown to squeeze Republicans,” Schultz said. “But the harder the shutdown, the more he potentially alienates his base.”
But if the political currents look troubling for Dayton, they must be viewed in the context of public sentiments about his Republican counterparts at the Capitol. The SurveyUSA poll did not exactly find positive opinions of the GOP-controlled House and Senate: 65 percent of respondents expressed disapproval of the job being performed by the Legislature, while just 23 percent expressed approval.
If a shutdown ensues, public sentiments about both Dayton and the Legislature are almost certain to further erode. That’s because the partisan stalemate reinforces already strongly held public notions about the incompetence and treachery of politicians everywhere.
But in this lowly beauty contest, Dayton will likely enjoy a couple of advantages. Foremost is the power of the bully pulpit. Any time he wishes to call a press conference, the news media will show up en masse and provide prominent coverage of his talking points. “The governor, if he has even decent bully pulpit skills, always has the advantage in terms of speaking with one voice,” Frank said. “Maybe Dayton is not the best conveyor of his ideas, but he does speak with one voice when he speaks.”
But Gregg Peppin, a veteran GOP campaign strategist, suggests that Republican messaging might be able to compete on a more even footing with the governor than during the state’s only previous government shutdown six years ago. The reason: Twitter and Facebook. “The difference between 2005 and 2011 is you’ve got the whole advance of social media,” Peppin said. “Will that be an effective way for Republicans to counter the bully pulpit that Dayton has? There’s a difference in how we communicate in the last six years that can level the playing field.”
But Republican legislators also face another significant disadvantage politically in the looming standoff: Because of redistricting, every one of them must stand for re-election next year. By contrast, Dayton wouldn’t be up for re-election until 2014, and it’s not even certain at this point that he will seek a second term. If voters are looking to express their wrath over governmental gridlock at the Capitol, their first opportunity will arrive as a referendum on the Republican majorities in the House and Senate.
Schultz further points out that GOP legislators could face endorsement challenges if they defy the party’s base and ultimately vote for a budget solution that includes increased revenue. Of the six Republicans who voted to override Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s veto of a gas tax hike in 2008, two ultimately were denied party backing, and two others — stripped of their leadership positions in the GOP caucus and facing fierce criticism from party activists — opted not to seek re-election. Ultimately, only two (Reps. Rod Hamilton and Jim Abeler) won re-election. “If the Republicans don’t capitulate,” Schultz noted, “they face real wrath from the voters. If they capitulate, then they face the wrath within their own party.”
