Minnesota Lawyer
Mark Dayton
Polling guru Nate Silver, of the FiveThirtyEight blog, has released his latest analysis of gubernatorial contests across the country. The upshot: Mark Dayton has a 77 percent chance of winning the governor’s race based on polling results that have been released so far.
That’s actually a one percentage point dip from Silver’s previous assessment of the contest. It’s also down from a peak of 83 percent for the DFL nominee in mid-August.
By combining various polling results and weighting them for significance, Silver projects that Dayton will end up with 44.8 percent of the vote on November 2, with GOP nominee Tom Emmer finishing five points back. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner trails well behind with projected support from 13 percent of voters.
